Asian Development Bank trims growth estimates for Asia in 2019-20


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Asian Development Bank trims growth estimates for Asia in 2019-20

Uncertainties generated by the trade war between the United States and China and the see-sawing of Brexit could contribute to a sluggish rate of development in Asia, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). As per a report published in Reuters, the ADB lowered its estimates of growth for the 45 countries clubbed under 'Developing Asia' in the Asia-Pacific for the second consecutive year.

According to the Bank's chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada, "A drawn out or deteriorating trade conflict between the People’s Republic of China and the United States could undermine investment and growth in developing Asia."

He added, "Though abrupt increases in U.S. interest rates appear to have ceased, for the time being, policymakers must remain vigilant in these uncertain times." In December 2018, the ADB's Asian Development Outlook had estimated that there would be a growth of about 5.8% that has now been trimmed to 5.7%.

In 2018, the growth was pegged at 5.9% and around 6.2% in 2017. Dire as these statistics are, the estimates for 2020 – according to the ADB will be hitting a near-18-year low (since 2001) – are 5.6%. With respect to individual countries, the ADB's report mentioned that for 2019, China would maintain a growth rate of 6.3%, a reduction of 0.3% from its growth rate in 2018.

For 2020, the ADB estimated that China would grow at 6%. India, on the other hand, is estimated to grow at 7.2% in 2019, an increase of about 0.2% from its growth rate of 7% in 2018. In 2020, as per ADB's analysis, the Indian economy would grow at around 7.3%.