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Max Verstappen sees his second world title in F1. The Red Bull driver is 104 points clear of Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc, and after failing the (difficult) match point in Singapore, the Dutch driver could now be crowned world champion for a second time in Suzuka, Japan.
Max will be champion if he earns 8 points over Leclerc and 6 points over Perez. Verstappen will be world champion if he wins with the fastest lap, but without the fastest lap and Leclerc 2nd at the finish will not be enough to win the world title.
Leclerc will be no better than 5th without fastest lap, Perez no better than 4th without fastest lap, with Max second. Max third at the finish line with the fastest lap, Leclerc no better than 6th, Perez no better than 5th.
Verstappen 4th, Leclerc no better than 8th without fastest lap, Perez no better than 7th without fastest lap. Red Bull driver fifth, Leclerc no better than 9th without fastest lap, Perez no better than 8th without fastest lap.
Finally, Verstappen sixth, Leclerc out of the points, Perez no better than 9th without a fastest lap. All this obviously if the FIA does not intervene against the controversial budget cap issue. On September 30, the International Federation should have communicated the report on the budget cap after the first year of introduction in F1.
The analysis would have identified two teams that would have breached this ceiling, Aston Martin and Red Bull. Red Bull is trying to show that many aspects were not clear and easy to interpret, to try to file the liabilities and at least return to the least breach range.
The regulation provides that if it is a minor breach, a fine is triggered, while it is not clear what happens in the case of a severe breach. FIA has shown that they have a straight back and do not want to compromise. It is up to the Federation to keep the bar right and not accept the excuses of excessive spending to bring the Red Bull case back into a minor breach.