From predictable September slumps to high hopes in mid-October, Bitcoin's dynamic journey continues to captivate.
A Predictable September Slump
Bitcoin, often hailed as the gold standard of digital currencies, has shown a consistent pattern over the years: September isn't its best month.
Historical data underscores this sentiment, revealing that over the last 13 years, Bitcoin’s monthly returns have concluded in the negative nine times at September's close. This observed trend doesn't come as a surprise to those following the crypto pulse closely.
Will Clemente, a renowned crypto analyst, recently flagged this to his massive following, stating that September has witnessed the “least number of positive-returning months” over the years. What's more, this month is on a staggering six-year streak of negative returns.
But as any seasoned investor would caution, the past is not always indicative of the future.
Bitcoin's returns broken down by months
September has had the least number of positive-returning months at just two and is on a 6-year negative-returning streak.
Mid-October: The New Hope on the Horizon
While September's track record might be disheartening for some, there's a shimmering beacon on the horizon: mid-October.
According to Bloomberg ETF analysts, this month holds a promise for Bitcoin investors. The spotlight focuses on the second decision deadline for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on seven eagerly awaited spot Bitcoin ETFs.
These potential game-changers hail from financial heavyweights such as BlackRock, Bitwise, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, VanEck, iShares, and Invesco. James Seyffart, a prominent voice among Bloomberg's ETF analysts, took to the platform on August 30, sharing an optimistic forecast.
Seyffart, in tandem with colleague Eric Balchunas, placed the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF securing approval by year's end at a hefty 75%. This projection stirred quite a buzz, especially since mid-October is the SEC's last decision deadline, at least for 2023.
In a tweet echoing this sentiment, Eric Balchunas stated, "@JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of '24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w 'very little wiggle room'" citing @NYCStein.
Further cementing this stance, Seyffart, joined by Elliot Stein, remarked in an August 30 note, “The judges unanimously repudiated the SEC’s arguments, and the agency will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deadlines”.
Only time will tell whether Bitcoin's September blues will pave the way for an October upturn. But one thing's for certain: the crypto landscape remains as exhilarating as ever.
NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of '24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w "very little wiggle room" via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023
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