Bitcoin Bulls vs Bears: Who Will Win the $40,000 Race?

Bitcoin (BTC) maintains a stance that keeps traders on their toes, hovering near its highest levels in 18 months.

by Faruk Imamovic
Bitcoin Bulls vs Bears: Who Will Win the $40,000 Race?
© Getty Images News/Dan Kitwood

Bitcoin (BTC) maintains a stance that keeps traders on their toes, hovering near its highest levels in 18 months. After a notable spike above $38,000 last week, Bitcoin's price action has sustained higher levels, albeit with a "micro-range" that presents a standoff between bullish and bearish forces.

The crucial question facing market participants in the short term is whether Bitcoin will retreat or surge past the $40,000 mark, defying skeptics.

Upcoming Catalysts and Market Sentiments

The days ahead are lined with potential catalysts that could influence Bitcoin's price trend.

Notably, volatility is expected as the monthly close approaches. Before this key event, various macroeconomic developments could introduce unexpected price movements. As of now, Bitcoin is witnessing an increase of less than 10% for the month, presenting a critical juncture for day traders.

The daily trading range is currently hemmed in by untested liquidity levels below and the allure of breaking past $40,000 above, amidst surrounding resistance. Neither bulls nor bears have managed to significantly shift the BTC/USD corridor, with new highs on daily timeframes being ephemeral.

Analyzing Trader Perspectives and Liquidity Blocks

Popular trader Skew anticipates a resurgence of bid momentum. He observes that spot takers initially led the bounce, and perpetual takers were subsequently compelled to bid, mostly due to short positions being forced out of the market.

Skew emphasizes the importance of watching whether spot bids will continue in the upcoming European and U.S. trading sessions. Furthermore, Skew notes significant blocks of liquidity above and below the current spot price, identifying $37,000 and $38,000 as critical levels.

He suggests that continued selling by spot takers could lead to the fulfillment of limit bids below $37,000. Conversely, the supply or ask liquidity remains concentrated in the $38,000 to $40,000 zone, marking it as a pivotal area for potential upward movement.

Bitcoin's Historical November Performance and Hash Rate Milestone

Historically, November has been a month characterized by robust BTC price movements, both upward and downward.

However, this November seems comparatively average, with Bitcoin up 7.8% month-to-date. The fourth quarter overall has been more promising, showing gains of nearly 40%. In terms of infrastructure, Bitcoin's hash rate recently surpassed 500 exahashes per second (EH/s), marking a record high.

This milestone, achieved ahead of the anticipated block subsidy halving in April 2024, demonstrates miners' confidence in Bitcoin's future profitability despite its price being 50% below its peak. Additionally, miner wallet outflows to exchanges are at their lowest in seven years, suggesting reduced selling pressure in the market.