Halving Hype: Could Bitcoin Skyrocket to $100,000 in 2024?


Halving Hype: Could Bitcoin Skyrocket to $100,000 in 2024?
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Bitcoin has experienced significant fluctuations in value, influenced by global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and regional conflicts. As the world looks towards 2024, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and a pioneer in cryptographic technology, shares his insights on Bitcoin's potential resurgence.

A Rough Ride for Bitcoin

The past two years have been tumultuous for Bitcoin, with its value dropping significantly. Back attributes this decline to a combination of factors that have also impacted traditional financial markets.

"The last few years were like biblical pestilence and plague. There was COVID-19, quantitative easing, and wars affecting power prices. Inflation running up people, companies are going bankrupt,” he explained.
This challenging period necessitated tough choices for investment managers, often leading to the sale of more liquid assets like Bitcoin for cash flow purposes.

Despite these challenges, the latter part of 2023 has shown a positive turn for Bitcoin. Back observes that many of the macro events have wound down, and industry-specific issues, including the failures of companies linked to Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, BlockFi, and FTX, have mostly been resolved.

This shift is mirrored in Bitcoin’s price surge from November 2023 onwards.

The Next Halving and Potential Upsurge

A significant factor in Bitcoin’s future is the upcoming halving event, a programmed reduction in Bitcoin miners’ block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

This halving, occurring every 210,000 blocks, is anticipated to have a considerable impact on Bitcoin's value. Back points to historical trends to support his optimistic outlook for 2024. He references the “stock-to-flow” model created by PlanB, a pseudonymous former institutional investor.

This model suggests that seasoned Bitcoin investors have historically bought BTC six months before a halving event and capitalized on the price surges that follow.

“People thought it was a bit of a crazy assertion that we might get to $100,000 pre-halving because I said it when the price was around $20,000,” Back noted, reflecting on the model’s implications for future Bitcoin prices.